A U.S.-Colombia free-trade deal?

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The Bush administration is pushing Congress hard to approve a free-trade agreement (FTA) with Colombia, in the face of rising opposition from Democrats, editorial page writers and, according to recent polls, public opinion.

The Times asked a former Clinton administration official, now a Washington-based political analyst with his ear to the ground, to handicap the deal’s chances. Slim to none this year, he said: ‘The real question is one of timing. Realistically, the chances of moving the FTA before Congress adjourns for the year are limited, due to the congressional calendar and also the complicated politics surrounding the matter.’

So that probably throws the U.S.-Colombia FTA into 2008 and the politics of the U.S. presidential elections, when difficult political matters such as trade agreements become even more difficult to pass. Organized labor, a key constituency in Democratic Party politics and one of the most important during the primaries because of money and organization, is dead set against the agreement, thus giving pause to Democratic leaders in Congress who may otherwise seek to bring it up for a vote.

Nonetheless, the administration is pushing for a vote under existing fast track legislation before it leaves office. Ultimately, the agreement will probably pass, because of the significant foreign policy implications it carries, but it will be a close and fierce fight. The main question to be sorted out is this: Does the Democratic candidate for president want to deal with the trade agreement in 2009 after taking office, or would s/he prefer to have it done and out of the way by the time of the inauguration? Politics will determine the timing on this one.

Posted by Chris Kraul in Bogota