RAIDERS BEWARE

The NFL draft is three days away, and the Oakland Raiders are on the clock. Typically, they aren’t saying much about which direction they’re leaning, although the rampant speculation is they will use the No. 1 pick on Louisiana State quarterback JaMarcus Russell or Georgia Tech receiver Calvin Johnson.

But one of the best players in Raiders history has three little words of advice for his old team: Don’t do it.

Retired receiver Tim Brown says he thinks it would be a big mistake for the Raiders to select either of those players, even though he thinks both have potential to excel.

“I think they should take Joe Thomas,” Brown said, referring to the All-American left tackle from Wisconsin. “It’s not the glamorous move, and it’s not the splash everybody wants. But from a football point of view, I think it would make perfect sense for them to do that.”

The Raiders, who haven’t used a first-round pick on a skill-position player since drafting tight end Rickey Dudley in 1996, are coming off a 2-14 season in which they surrendered a league-worst 72 sacks. If they’re skittish about spending such a high pick on an offensive lineman -- one they’ll have to pay in the neighborhood of $30 million guaranteed -- it’s probably because they selected tackle Robert Gallery second overall in 2004, and he has been a bust.

But the way Brown sees it, the 6-foot-6, 255-pound Russell could be equally disappointing if he is forced into action too soon. He sees the quarterback as a two-year project, and one who might never fit in the type of West Coast system that new Coach Lane Kiffin plans to run.

“I was on the sideline of the LSU game, and I saw the kid warming up,” said Brown, referring to the Tigers’ victory over Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. “I don’t think he’s Michael Vick, for sure, and I definitely don’t think he’s Vince Young....

“Yeah, I think [Russell] is a big guy, and he may be able to scramble once in a while, but that’s not his forte. He’s not a rhythm passer. He’s a guy who likes to go back, pat the ball a couple of times and then get rid of the ball. In the NFL, and especially in the West Coast offense, you have to be a rhythm passer. You have to go back, and on your fifth step that ball has to be coming out.”

Brown, a Heisman Trophy-winning receiver at Notre Dame who spent 17 seasons with the Raiders before retiring in 2005, said it would be smarter for Oakland to draft Fighting Irish quarterback Brady Quinn “but obviously no one is talking about that right now.”

The Raiders, among the more secretive NFL teams, aren’t saying much of anything about what they plan to do. There’s always a chance they could trade down out of the top spot. There’s been speculation that Tampa Bay, which picks fourth, and Denver, which picks 21st, might try to move up to draft Johnson.

However, a deal involving those teams and the Raiders seems highly unlikely for several reasons -- among them, Buccaneers Coach Jon Gruden and Broncos Coach Mike Shanahan each coached the Raiders and strained feelings remain.

Other teams might reason, why trade up if we can stay where we are and get a good player -- maybe the player we’ve wanted all along -- for less money?

The top pick will get a big payday, of course, and all of the pressure that comes with it.

“Every day someone’s going to expect you to do something great because of all the money and all the pressure that’s on you,” Kiffin said. “If it happened to be a quarterback, you’ve got to deal with the guy every week and you’re going to get the questions. ‘Are you ready to play? Why aren’t you playing?’ ... So there’s a lot of work to do off the field as well as on the field.”

That’s not to say Kiffin is tipping his hand. His tight-lipped approach heading into his first draft was typified by his comments last month when he was asked what the Raiders intended to do with the pick, and whether they might trade it.

“We have the No. 1 pick at this time,” he said. “And if we do pick there, we’ll either draft a guy on offense or defense. I cut off all the other questions with that. We don’t need kickers. We’re solid there.”

People began connecting Russell-to-the-Raiders dots after he threw for 322 yards and scored three touchdowns in a 41-14 trouncing of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.

Brown, for one, wasn’t blown away by his performance.

“JaMarcus Russell went from wherever he was to No. 1 because of Notre Dame’s defense,” he said. “And nobody around here is going to tell me that Notre Dame’s defense is a top-rated defense. If you look at what he did in that game, he went back, he ran around, and, ‘Oh, this is Notre Dame, let me just throw a Hail Mary.’ And his boys kept coming down with the passes. I don’t know how a game like that would promote a guy so far up the ladder, but that’s what happens. This is a hype league, and all this stuff is really about hype, so that doesn’t surprise me.

“I do think he’ll be a good player. I’m not saying he won’t be. I just don’t think he’s ready the first year he walks into the league. I think Brady is more equipped to walk in and play the first day. And I think he will play faster than JaMarcus Russell, even if [Russell] comes to the Raiders.”

Likewise, Brown says he doesn’t think Johnson is an ideal fit for the Raiders, even though he called him “a guy who’s going to be great no matter where he goes.”

“But is Calvin Johnson a West Coast type of receiver? I don’t really think that about him,” he said. “I don’t look at him as a pattern runner. I look at him as a Randy Moss-type guy. He’s fast, big and can out-jump people. Can you conform him to a West Coast offense? Probably can. Will it happen overnight? Probably not.”

The best solution in the short term, Brown said, is to keep quarterback Andrew Walter and improve his blockers.

“I don’t know if they’ll do that because they need some glamour right now,” he said. “They need some hype. ... [But] they have a quarterback in Walter that they can give another year to see if he’s capable of getting something done. If he can’t get it done, then you move on and say you need to get a quarterback next year.”

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High expectations

A look at the Raiders’ first-round picks since returning to Oakland:

* 2006 -- Michael Huff, S, seventh: Started all 16 games last season but failed to get a sack, an interception, or force or recover a fumble.

* 2005 -- Fabian Washington, CB, 23rd: Although shaky as a rookie, Washington was more reliable last season and locked down a starting job.

* 2004 -- Robert Gallery, OT, second: A major disappointment. He has bounced from left to right tackle and back.

* 2003 -- Nnamdi Asomugha, CB, 31st: He seemed to be a reach when the Raiders took him, but Asomugha now looks like a steal. Had a Pro Bowl-worthy season in 2006.

* 2003 -- Tyler Brayton, DE, 32nd: His most memorable play: kneeing Seattle tight end Jerramy Stevens in the groin on national TV.

* 2002 -- Phillip Buchanon, CB, 17th: Started with a flurry but faded quickly, both as corner and punt returner. Traded to Houston.

* 2002 -- Napoleon Harris, LB, 23rd: Rookie starter on a Super Bowl team, but hasn’t done much since. Dealt to Minnesota in Randy Moss trade.

* 2001 -- Derrick Gibson, S, 28th: Made three interceptions in six seasons. Was cut three times, and re-signed twice. He isn’t likely to return.

* 2000 -- Sebastian Janikowski, K, 17th: Became the first kicker selected in the opening round in 21 years. Has struggled with his consistency at times, but has one of the league’s strongest legs.

* 1999 -- Matt Stinchcomb, OT, 18th: Heralded pick who suffered a shoulder injury as a rookie and never made much of an impact after that.

* 1998 -- Charles Woodson, CB, fourth: Had a terrific rookie season and wound up making three Pro Bowls. Relationship with team deteriorated though.

* 1998 -- Mo Collins, OT, 23rd: Struggling with his weight, he failed to lock down a long-term position on the line.

* 1997 -- Darrell Russell, DT, second: After a great start that included two Pro Bowls, his career was derailed by drugs and transgressions. Killed in a 2003 car crash.

* 1996 -- Rickey Dudley, TE, ninth: Made some big plays but dropped a lot of balls. Followed Coach Jon Gruden to Tampa Bay.

* 1995 -- Napoleon Kaufman, RB, 18th: Had 12 touchdowns in six seasons, reaching the 1,000-yard milestone once in his career.

-- SAM FARMER