NL Central preview: Cubs have the upper hand

Staff Writer

April 1, 2017 6:05 AM PT

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A look at how the National League Central is likely to play out during the 2017 season. (Listed in order of predicted finish. Lineups are projections as of March 28.)

1 | CHICAGO CUBS

2016 | 103-58, 1st in Central

Last year in playoffs | 2016

Javier Baez, breakout star in the World Baseball Classic, can’t crack the starting lineup. Kyle Hendricks, who started Game 7 of the World Series and finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting, is the fifth starter. There is a potential weak spot — limited depth beyond those atop the rotation — but so much is so good here that Fortune ranked Theo Epstein the world’s greatest leader, two spots ahead of Pope Francis. Ending curses from 1918 (Boston Red Sox) and 1908 (Cubs) is apparently beyond divine.

Starting lineup:

LF; Kyle Schwarber

3B; Kris Bryant

1B; Anthony Rizzo

2B; Ben Zobrist

SS; Addison Russell

RF; Jason Heyward

C; Willson Contreras

CF; Albert Almora/Jon Jay

Pitching rotation:

LH; Jon Lester

RH; Jake Arrieta

RH; John Lackey

LH; Brett Anderson

RH; Kyle Hendricks

Closer:

RH; Wade Davis

2 | ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

2016 | 86-76, 2nd in Central

Last year in playoffs | 2015

The Cardinals could miss the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2007-08. They ranked third in the NL in runs last year, so they spent $82.5 million on … center fielder Dexter Fowler. They ranked last in the NL with 35 stolen bases, but Fowler stole just 13 last year. October depends less on running and more on a rotation, with Lance Lynn coming off elbow surgery and Adam Wainwright (4.62), Mike Leake (4.69) and Michael Wacha (5.09) coming off poor seasons.

Starting lineup:

CF; Dexter Fowler

SS; Aldemys Diaz

1B; Matt Carpenter

3B; Jhonny Peralta

RF; Stephen Piscotty

C; Yadier Molina

LF; Randal Grichuk

2B; Kolten Wong

Pitching rotation:

RH; Carlos Martinez

RH; Adam Wainwright

RH; Lance Lynn

RH; Mike Leake

RH; Michael Wacha

Closer:

RH; Seung Hwan Oh

3 | PITTSBURGH PIRATES

2016 | 78-83, 3rd in Central

Last year in playoffs | 2015

Andrew McCutchen is the heartbeat of the Pirates, a five-time All-Star and the 2013 NL MVP, the center fielder for the first three Pittsburgh playoff teams since Barry Bonds played there. But McCutchen had his worst season last year, his guaranteed contract expires this year, and he turned 30 in between. The Pirates tried to trade him last winter and moved him to right field this spring. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are underrated, but the Pirates can’t contend if McCutchen is their third-best outfielder again this season.

Starting lineup:

2B; Josh Harrison

CF; Starling Marte

RF; Andrew McCutchen

LF; Gregory Polanco

3B; David Freese

1B; Josh Bell

C; Francisco Cervelli

SS; Jordy Mercer

Pitching rotation:

RH; Gerrit Cole

RH; Jameson Taillon

RH; Ivan Nova

RH; Chad Kuhl

LH; Steven Brault/LH; Drew Hutchison

Closer:

LH; Tony Watson

4 | CINCINNATI REDS

2016 | 68-94, 5th in Central

Last year in playoffs | 2013

Scott Schebler was so low on the Dodgers’ outfield depth chart that the team happily included him in a three-for-three prospect trade. He had limited upside, and was just as old as the established Yasiel Puig. Yet, Schebler had a better on-base percentage and slugging percentage than Puig last year. The Reds traded Brandon Phillips to make room for Jose Peraza, giving them two regulars from the deal. The Dodgers’ take: Trayce Thompson (13 homers), Frankie Montas (included in Rich Hill trade), Micah Johnson (designated for assignment).

Starting lineup:

CF; Billy Hamilton

SS; Zack Cozart

1B; Joey Votto

LF; Adam Duvall

RF; Scott Schebler

3B; Eugenio Suarez

2B; Jose Peraza

C; Tucker Barnhart

Pitching rotation:

RH; Scott Feldman

LH; Brandon Finnegan

LH; Amir Garrett

RH; Bronson Arroyo

RH; Rookie Davis

Closer:

RH; Raisel Iglesias

5 | MILWAUKEE BREWERS

2016 | 73-89, 4th in Central

Last year in playoffs | 2013

The Dodgers prefer not to pay market rate for a star hitter when they can believe they can get similar production at less cost and risk from a platoon. But if the Dodgers can’t hit left-handers again — they hit an MLB-worst .213 against left-handers last season — it might be time to bring Ryan Braun home, as the full-time left fielder. The last Dodger to start 100 games in left field was Luis Gonzalez, in 2007. The Brewers are rebuilding, and they’ll run a lot during the process.

Starting lineup:

2B; Jonathan Villar

CF; Keon Broxton

LF; Ryan Braun

1B; Eric Thames

RF; Domingo Santana

3B; Travis Shaw

C; Jett Bandy/Manny Pina

SS; Orlando Arcia

Pitching rotation:

RH; Junior Guerra

RH; Kyle Davies